Despite stumbling against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, the Miami Hurricanes still control their own destiny in the ACC title and College Football Playoff races. The formula is simple: just win.
But the Wake Forest Demon Deacons would like nothing more than to ruin the Hurricanes’ season. Can Dave Clawson’s squad pull off the upset that turns the ACC Championship race on its head? Find out what we think in this Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL) prediction.
Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL) Betting Preview
All Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL) odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -19.5 - Spread
Miami -24 - Moneyline
Miami -3000, Wake Forest +1200 - Over/Under
64.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 23, Noon ET - Location
Hard Rock Stadium | Miami, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
While the Hurricanes fell in the College Football Playoff rankings last week following their loss to Georgia Tech, there’s still a clear path to the postseason. There’s just no room for error anymore. The Vegas spread here implies the Hurricanes should be safe from upset, but we’ve seen weirder results.
With a total of 63.5 points and a spread of 24 points, the sportsbooks expect Cam Ward and the Miami offense to put up huge numbers, implying a score close to 44-20 in favor of the Hurricanes.
Wake Forest’s Winning Probability
While CFN’s FPM isn’t quite as low on the Demon Deacons’ chances in this one as Vegas is, it still has them as 24-point underdogs. The metric gives them a 7.1% chance to win. While bowl eligibility is mathematically possible, the Demon Deacons should be moderate underdogs in the season finale as well.
- at Miami-FL: 7.1%
- vs. Duke: 32.3%
Miami’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Miami has a 92.9% chance of beating Wake Forest at home. According to our metric, the Hurricanes will be moderate favorites next week against the Syracuse Orange.
If Miami wins out, they will appear in the ACC Championship Game, most likely against the SMU Mustangs. Our metric gives them just over a 65% chance of winning out.
- vs. Wake Forest: 92.9%
- at Syracuse: 70.3%
Prediction for Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL)
With respect to Clawson and the Demon Deacons, this game is about the Hurricanes being ready for the moment. If Mario Cristobal has his team ready to play, Miami should win these last two games to set up a “win-and-in” ACC Championship for an automatic bye in the College Football Playoff.
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But don’t discount Wake Forest’s ability to score here as long as Hank Bachmeier is healthy. Bachmeier exited last week’s game against North Carolina early in the second half, and while it was reported that he was healthy enough to give it a go, the coaching staff held him out with plenty of quarterback runs in the game plan.
The Demon Deacons’ offense, with a healthy Bachmeier, hasn’t been the issue this season, and I think they can score on Miami’s defense. The Hurricanes defense isn’t just bad for a playoff contender, it’s below average for all FBS schools.
Even average ACC offenses (see Duke) have had season-best outings against the Hurricanes. While it doesn’t bode well for potential playoff matchups, it also means that no matchup is truly an automatic win for the Hurricanes.
Cam Ward is still Cam Ward, and if this was a normal year of college football, he’d probably win the Heisman Trophy. I just don’t see the Demon Deacons’ defense matching up well with the skill players or forcing Ward off his game.
However, I’m not sure Miami’s defense can slow Wake Forest enough to cover a 24-point spread. Miami has held only Florida State under 28 points in ACC play, and if the Demon Deacons reach that mark, the Hurricanes would need 53 to cover.
That’s probably not going to happen.
Miami should score enough to win, Wake Forest should score enough to cover, and the combination of those should be enough to send this over the total.
Prediction: Miami 42, Wake Forest 27
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