The Los Angeles Lakers’ bold trade for Luka Dončić has reconfigured the team’s future in a significant way. Since the deal, the Lakers have gone 12-4, with an 8-4 record in games Dončić has played. On the surface, the results seem promising, yet there’s an undercurrent of uncertainty about how well Dončić and his new teammates will gel come playoff time. Data analysis suggests that while the Lakers have been winning, their chemistry on offense might need more time to develop.
The Dončić Impact: On the Court
Luka Dončić’s arrival in Los Angeles has been a game-changer for the Lakers, at least in terms of the team’s overall performance. However, his individual numbers have shown a decline since the trade. Before joining the Lakers, Dončić was shooting 55.5% on two-point attempts and 34.5% on threes with the Dallas Mavericks. As a Laker, his numbers have dipped to 47.5% on twos and 32.2% from beyond the arc. Additionally, his turnover rate has increased despite playing fewer minutes and having a reduced usage rate.
These numbers might seem surprising for a player of Dončić’s caliber, but they may be expected when considering the inherent challenges of adjusting to a new system and a new set of teammates. Dončić is a player accustomed to being the focal point of his offense, and now, in LA, he has to coexist with another superstar, LeBron James, while finding his rhythm within a new team dynamic.
The Lakers’ Strong Defense
Interestingly, the Lakers’ most noticeable improvement since the trade has been on defense. Despite trading away elite defensive assets like Anthony Davis and Max Christie, the Lakers’ defensive efficiency has dramatically improved, rising from 21st in the league to one of the top-ranked units. This defensive leap contrasts with the offensive efficiency, which has remained relatively stagnant.
The Lakers’ revamped defense, along with Dončić’s visible engagement and improved defensive effort—something that had been a concern during his time in Dallas—has been a pleasant surprise. Lakers coach JJ Redick lauded Dončić’s defensive commitment, which has helped the team stabilize in ways not entirely related to his offensive game.
The Role of Chemistry
However, one factor that might be contributing to the Lakers’ inconsistent offense is the chemistry—or lack thereof—between Dončić and his new teammates. This was highlighted during the 2025 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, where analysts Ben Alamar and Dean Oliver presented data showing that players often struggle to achieve peak offensive efficiency when they’re playing alongside new teammates.
In their analysis, Alamar and Oliver focused on catch-and-shoot shooting percentages. They found that when players are paired with new teammates, the quality of their shots and their shooting accuracy tends to decline, particularly in the early stages of the partnership. The data indicated that, as players spend more time together, shooting percentages improve over time. For instance, by the start of their second season together, teammates’ expected points from catch-and-shoot shots were 5.5% higher. By the end of the second season, those expected points were 11.7% higher.
Historical Examples and Trends
There are several historical examples that underscore this trend. The Phoenix Suns’ acquisition of Chris Paul in 2020 is one of the most prominent cases. In his first two months with Phoenix, Paul’s teammates shot an effective field goal percentage of just 46.6%. However, by the end of the season, the Suns’ shooting efficiency had skyrocketed to 72.3%. This surge played a crucial role in the Suns’ surprising run to the NBA Finals.
Similarly, when Luka Dončić first played alongside Kyrie Irving in Dallas, the shooting percentages on passes from Dončić were much lower in the first season compared to the second season, which saw the Mavericks rise to Western Conference Finals contention.
The lack of chemistry is not unique to Dončić; in fact, even superstar pairings like Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo initially struggled to develop chemistry. While the two barely ran pick-and-roll plays together in their first season, they have since formed a potent duo in Milwaukee.
The Current Situation with Dončić and James
For the Lakers, the partnership between LeBron James and Luka Dončić has yet to fully materialize in the way many had hoped. The two stars have not yet developed the kind of two-man game that is expected from a duo of this caliber. Given the data on chemistry and shooting percentages, it’s possible that the Dončić-James pairing will need more time to reach its full potential.
The timing of this issue is critical. James is currently nursing a groin injury, which means the Lakers may face more challenges in their quest for chemistry. The absence of James could stop the clock on this critical development phase and make it harder for the Lakers to establish the fluidity necessary for a deep playoff run.
Looking Ahead
The clock is ticking for the Lakers to build the chemistry necessary to make a serious championship push this season. If the team is to reach its full potential, they may need to look at the second season of the Luka-LeBron partnership as the one that unlocks their true form. For now, the Lakers’ playoff hopes rest on their ability to continue improving on both sides of the ball, while also allowing time for Dončić and James to find their rhythm together.
While the Lakers’ success since the Dončić trade is undeniable, the team’s offensive chemistry might still need more time to develop. If the duo of Dončić and James can unlock their full potential in time for the playoffs, the Lakers could make a deep run. However, their ability to mesh on the court will likely be a key factor in determining whether this Lakers team can truly contend for a title in 2025.
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